Expert reveals 3 free NBA first basket predictions, bets, picks for Monday, March 10: Back Jamal Murray

Monday’s NBA schedule features 12 games, beginning with a rematch of Sunday’s game between the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder, led by MVP front-runner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, defeated Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets 127-103. Today’s game is scheduled to tipoff at 8 p.m. ET. The Thunder are 9.5-point favorites in the Monday NBA betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 238 and Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite to score first at +490. Another matchup between potential playoff teams unfolds when the New York Knicks take on the Sacramento Kings at 10:30 p.m. ET. According to the latest NBA odds, the Knicks are 2.5-point road favorites. Karl-Anthony Towns is the favorite to score the first bucket at +210.

SportsLine expert handicapper Jimmie Kaylor has broken down the NBA odds for every game on Monday and locked in three first basket scorer prop bets. Kaylor is a handicapper and DFS pro for SportsLine who won a DraftKings Millionaire contest in 2022 and also has multiple five-figure tournament wins on his DFS resume. Now, here are Kaylor’s top three first basket scorer bets for Monday.

Alperen Sengun (+500 at FanDuel) in Houston Rockets vs. Orlando Magic

Sengun (19.3 points per game) has scored the first basket in 16 games already this season, and the Rockets as a team have scored first in 36 of their 64 games this season. Sengun’s rare blend of size, physicality, and athleticism present a significant mismatch for the Magic in the frontcourt. The 22-year-old is a rising star in the NBA, and is one of the top options in Houston’s explosive offensive attack. FanDuel Sportsbook has the best odds for Sengun as first scorer at +500.

fanduel logo rectangle
Bet $5 Get $200 in Bonus Bets
if Your Bet Wins
Claim bonus
21+ (18+ D.C.) and present in AZ, CO, CT, DC, IA, IL IN, KS (in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino), KY, LA (excluding certain perishes), MA, MD, MI, NC, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, or WY. Void where prohibited. First online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bets that expire 7 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Data & text rates may apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit RG-help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT). Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).21+ (18+ D.C.) and present in AZ, CO, CT, DC, IA, IL IN, KS (in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino), KY, LA (excluding certain perishes), MA, MD, MI, NC, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, or WY. Void where prohibited. First online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bets that expire 7 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Data & text rates may apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit RG-help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT). Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).21+ (18+ D.C.) and present in AZ, CO, CT, DC, IA, IL IN, KS (in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino), KY, LA (excluding certain perishes), MA, MD, MI, NC, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, or WY. Void where prohibited. First online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bets that expire 7 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Data & text rates may apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit RG-help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT). Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
Jamal Murray (+650 at FanDuel) in Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Murray is coming off a lackluster performance against the Thunder on Sunday, but the former Kentucky standout remains one of the most explosive scorers in the NBA when he is dialed in. Murray has taken the first shot for Denver in 19.3% of the team’s games, an has scored the first basket in nine games. The 28-year-old guard is in prime position for a bounce back game on Monday night, and Kaylor expects him to look to score early.

Austin Reeves (+700 at FanDuel) in Los Angeles Lakers vs. Brooklyn Nets
The Lakers have won the opening tip in 61.3% of their games this season, and without LeBron James on the floor, Reeves should see an uptick in shot attempts on Monday night. The 26-year-old guard is averaging 18.8 points per game, and has scored the first basket in nine games this season. Point guard Luka Doncic is also questionable for Los Angeles, and if he is also unable to go, it will boost Reeves’ chances here even more. Reeves has attempted the first shot in 18.5% of the Lakers’ games this season.

Want more NBA picks for Monday?
SportsLine’s model is on a 147-107 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season. Visit SportsLine to get all of its NBA picks for Monday right here.

Suns’ Devin Booker says ‘vibes are low’ for Mavericks since trading Luka Doncic to Lakers

The Mavericks’ trade deadline pact that shipped out Luka Doncic to the Lakers for Anthony Davis is the deal that keeps on giving — or perhaps taking in the eyes of one longtime Western Conference rival.

Phoenix’s star guard Devin Booker weighed in on the franchise-altering trade after the Suns’ 125-116 victory in Dallas Sunday, stating that he could sense the shift in the Mavericks’ demeanor even before the game started.

“You can feel it when we land,” Booker said. “The vibes are low right now, but hopefully they can look back and once everybody gets healthy, on top of next season, still root on their team and root on their city.”

Doncic had been a fixture with the Mavericks since the draft night trade that brought him to the team in 2018. After first-round playoff exits in 2020 and 2021, the Mavs reached the NBA Finals last June and the Western Conference finals in two of the last three seasons. In 2022, Dallas and Phoenix were locked in epic seven-game series that saw the Mavericks dispatch the Suns thanks to Doncic scoring 68 points over back-to-back elimination games.

In addition to Doncic being gone, injuries have decimated the sinking Mavs, who’ve only had Davis (adductor strain) for one game since the trade. And then last week, star point guard Kyrie Irving tore his ACL and is out for the remainder of the season.

2025 NBA picks, March 10 best bets from proven model

A pair of teams just outside certain NBA Playoffs thresholds will meet as part of Monday’s NBA schedule as the Atlanta Hawks host the Philadelphia 76ers. Atlanta (30-34) is seventh in the Eastern Conference, one spot behind a guaranteed postseason spot and avoiding the NBA Play-In Tournament. Meanwhile, Philadelphia (22-41) is 11th in the East, one spot behind clinching a spot in the play-in tournament. This is the first matchup of the season between these teams, and they split four meetings last season.

Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from State Farm Arena in Atlanta. The Hawks favored by 11.5 points in the latest 76ers vs. Hawks odds, according to the SportsLine consensus. The over/under is 236 points. Atlanta is at -599 on the money line (risk $599 to win $100), while Philly is at +441 (risk $100 to win $441). Before entering any Hawks vs. 76ers picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 20 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 147-107 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It’s also an outstanding 18-10 (64%) on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Philadelphia vs. Atlanta. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Hawks vs. 76ers:

76ers vs. Hawks spread: Hawks -11.5
76ers vs. Hawks over/under: 236 points
76ers vs. Hawks money line: Hawks -599, 76ers +441
ATL: The Hawks are 31-33 against the spread (ATS) this season
PHI: The Sixers are an NBA-worst 22-41 ATS in 2024-25
76ers vs. Hawks picks: See picks at SportsLine
76ers vs. Hawks streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the 76ers can cover
Philadelphia ended a three-game losing streak with a 126-122 victory over the Utah Jazz on Sunday. The game wasn’t as close as the score indicated as Philly led by as many as 22 points and controlled the game, leading for over 32 minutes throughout. Quentin Grimes and Lonnie Walker IV each had 25 points to lead the Sixers, with Walker’s points coming as a reserve. As a team, the 76ers’ bench combined for 78 points, which is the second-most in a game in franchise history.

With six players in double-figures, Philadelphia showed it still has talent to put plenty of points on the board even without star players like Joel Embiid (knee), Paul George (groin) and Tyrese Maxey (back). The Sixers who will take the court can exploit a Hawks defense which struggles in multiple areas, ranking 28th in both field goal percentage allowed and 3-point percentage allowed, with additional bottom-eight rankings in opposing points in the paint and opposing fastbreak points per game. See which team to pick here.

betmgm logo rectangle
Up to $1500 in bonus bets
if your first bet loses
Claim bonus
21+ only. First Bet Offer for new customers only. Min. first deposit of $10. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. Bonus bets amount equals lost stake up to $1500. Must be physically located in AZ, CO, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MD, MA, MI, NJ, NC, OH, PA, TN, VA, DC, WV, or WY. Void where prohibited. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. See BetMGM.com for Terms. US promotional offers not available in Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). Data & text rates may apply. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA).21+ only. First Bet Offer for new customers only. Min. first deposit of $10. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. Bonus bets amount equals lost stake up to $1500. Must be physically located in AZ, CO, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MD, MA, MI, NJ, NC, OH, PA, TN, VA, DC, WV, or WY. Void where prohibited. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. See BetMGM.com for Terms. US promotional offers not available in Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). Data & text rates may apply. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA).21+ only. First Bet Offer for new customers only. Min. first deposit of $10. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. Bonus bets amount equals lost stake up to $1500. Must be physically located in AZ, CO, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MD, MA, MI, NJ, NC, OH, PA, TN, VA, DC, WV, or WY. Void where prohibited. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. See BetMGM.com for Terms. US promotional offers not available in Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). Data & text rates may apply. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA).
Why the Hawks can cover
Atlanta emerged with a 120-118 victory over Indiana on Saturday, giving the Hawks back-to-back victories for the first time since the All-Star break. Trae Young was the standout performer with 36 points, while new acquisition, Caris LeVert, contributed 26 points off the bench. The Hawks also covered and have now covered in three of their last four games, while the 76ers are 0-4 ATS over their last four outings.

LeVert is averaging 16.8 points on 51% shooting in 12 games with the Hawks, after putting up 10.2 points on 45.3% shooting with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Meanwhile, guard Dyson Daniels leads the NBA with 3.0 steals per game, which is on pace to be the most by any NBA player since Alvin Robertson in the 1990-91 season. He could wreak havoc versus a Sixers team whose primary ballhandlers are expected to be sidelined, and Philly is coming off an 18-turnover game on Sunday, which is its most since Jan. 14. See which team to pick here.

bet365 logo rectangle
Bet $5 & Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose
Code: CBSBET365
Claim bonus
21+ only (18+ in KY). *T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. Offer available in AZ/CO/IA/IN/IL/KY/PA/LA (select parishes)/NC/NJ/OH/TN/VA. Void where prohibited. Available to new customers only. Must claim offer within 30 days following registration. Deposit $10+ and place $5+ qualifying bet (odds of -500 or greater). Bonus bets are non-withdrawable and the Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. Bonus Bets expire after 7 days. Add’l terms and restriction apply see at bet365.com. The above bonus code can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. Data & text rates may apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ, IN, IL, KY, LA, NC, NJ, OH, TN, VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA).21+ only (18+ in KY). *T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. Offer available in AZ/CO/IA/IN/IL/KY/PA/LA (select parishes)/NC/NJ/OH/TN/VA. Void where prohibited. Available to new customers only. Must claim offer within 30 days following registration. Deposit $10+ and place $5+ qualifying bet (odds of -500 or greater). Bonus bets are non-withdrawable and the Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. Bonus Bets expire after 7 days. Add’l terms and restriction apply see at bet365.com. The above bonus code can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. Data & text rates may apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ, IN, IL, KY, LA, NC, NJ, OH, TN, VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA).21+ only (18+ in KY). *T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. Offer available in AZ/CO/IA/IN/IL/KY/PA/LA (select parishes)/NC/NJ/OH/TN/VA. Void where prohibited. Available to new customers only. Must claim offer within 30 days following registration. Deposit $10+ and place $5+ qualifying bet (odds of -500 or greater). Bonus bets are non-withdrawable and the Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. Bonus Bets expire after 7 days. Add’l terms and restriction apply see at bet365.com. The above bonus code can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. Data & text rates may apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ, IN, IL, KY, LA, NC, NJ, OH, TN, VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA).
How to make 76ers vs. Hawks picks
The model has simulated Hawks vs. 76ers 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under, projecting 226 combined points, and it also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Sixers vs. Hawks, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Hawks vs. Sixers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 147-107 roll on top-rated NBA picks since last season, and find out.

Where to bet on NBA games
Here are some of the sportsbooks to bet on NBA games today, along with the various NBA sportsbook promos they currently offer.